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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 31st, 2022–Jan 1st, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast Inland, Birkenhead, Duffey, South Chilcotin, Stein, Taseko.

Happy New Years! This new year has brought with it a tricky-moderate danger rating as a result of our shallow, weak, and atypical coastal snowpack.

Avoid wind-loaded areas at upper elevations where wind slabs may remain reactive to human triggering. Concern for buried weak layers in the mid to lower snowpack should have you sticking to conservative, low-consequence terrain and practicing good travel habits.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday, a large, size 3 avalanche was remotely triggered by skiers roughly 100 m away. The avalanche was on a northeast aspect at 2050 m. It ran on a weak layer of surface hoar (80 to 100 cm deep), before scrubbing down to the ground in steep terrain.

Observations remain limited, and no reports of new avalanches have been made since Wednesday.

Please continue to post your observations and photos to the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

This week, 10-20 cm of storm snow was accompanied by strong southwest winds, creating hard wind-affected surfaces in open areas, and wind slabs in lee terrain features. This new snow overlies a rain crust formed earlier in the week. This crust is thin at higher elevations and up 2 cm thick below treeline.

In the mid-snowpack, a weak layer of surface hoar has been observed down 80-100 cm, this layer is most prevalent in shaded and sheltered areas.

The lower snowpack consists of weak, sugary crystals of facets and depth hoar.

Snowpack depths remain highly variable, roughly 50 to 200 cm at treeline.

Weather Summary

Saturday night

Clear periods. Alpine temperatures reach a low of -8 °C. Mostly light southwest ridge wind occasionally gusting to 25 km/h. Freezing level at valley bottom.

Sunday

Sunny with cloudy periods. Alpine temperatures reach a high of -5 °C. Ridge wind light to 15 km/h from the southwest. Freezing level at valley bottom.

Monday

A mix of sun and cloud. Alpine temperatures reach a high of -3 °C. Mostly light ridge wind occasionally gusting to 30 km/h from the south. Freezing level at valley bottom.

Tuesday

Cloudy with sunny periods. Alpine temperatures reach a high of -5 °C. 25 km/h ridge wind occasionally gusting to 50 km/h from the southwest. Freezing level at valley bottom.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present and have produced recent large avalanches.
  • Avoid shallow snowpack areas, rock outcroppings and steep convex terrain where triggering is most likely.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.