Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 22nd, 2022–Dec 23rd, 2022

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper, Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.

One more day of frigid temperatures before things change over the weekend. Forecasted snow, wind, and warming temperatures will likely lead to rising avalanche hazard. Use caution as we emerge from cryostasis.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been observed or reported in the last couple days, but very few people have been out in the cold weather.

Snowpack Summary

Continued cold weather is forming surface facets and generally weakening the snowpack. A persistent weak layer is down 25-35cm specific to tree line and below in sheltered areas. The bottom of the snowpack is weak consisting of basal facets with pockets of depth hoar. The snowpack height ranges from 40-100cm. Snowpack is unsupportive tree line and below.

Weather Summary

Friday

Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries.

Precipitation: Trace.

Alpine temperature: High -13 °C.

Ridge wind southwest: 15 km/h.

Freezing level at valley bottom.

Saturday

Periods of snow.

Accumulation: 14 cm.

Alpine temperature: Low -12 °C, High -6 °C.

Ridge wind southwest: 20 km/h.

Freezing level at valley bottom.

Sunday

Periods of snow.

Accumulation: 13 cm.

Alpine temperature: Low -8 °C, High -2 °C.

Ridge wind southwest: 20 km/h gusting to 50 km/h.

Freezing level: 1800 metres.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices at this time.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.