Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 27th, 2024 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Deep Persistent Slabs, Persistent Slabs and Loose Wet.

CB, Avalanche Canada

Jasper, Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.

The avalanche hazard is expected to stay elevated over the next few days with the forecast warm temperatures, strong winds, and the possibility of new snow near the continental divide.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate

Snowpack Summary

Fluctuating freezing levels with intermittent solar radiation has formed surface crusts up to 2000m on most aspects, and higher on steep sun effected ones. Persistent weak layers formed in early January are down 20-30cm in sheltered areas, and have been reactive more recently where wind loaded. Well developed facets and depth hoar make up the bottom of the snowpack.

Weather Summary

A strong southwesterly flow will bring a series of storms and keep the warm airmass here for the next few days. The highest freezing levels are expected from Sunday night to Monday.

The Mountain Weather Forecast is available at Avalanche Canada https://www.avalanche.ca/weather/forecast

Terrain and Travel Advice

The likelihood of deep persistent slab avalanches will increase with each day of warm weather.
Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

The base of the snowpack is inherently weak and untrustworthy. Concern for human and natural triggering of this avalanche problem will increase as the temperatures rise over the next few days.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1.5 - 3

Persistent Slabs

This layer is concerning when there is a cohesive slab overlying it. Watch for the warnings in the snowpack like shooting cracks.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2.5

Loose Wet

Watch for this problem to become more significant as the temperatures rise, particularly in steep and rocky terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 1.5

Valid until: Jan 28th, 2024 4:00PM