Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Birkenhead, Duffey, South Chilcotin, South Coast Inland, Stein, Taseko.
Watch for pockets of stiff wind slab at upper elevations from recent northerly outflow winds. These slabs may be in atypical areas due to reverse-loading and could be particularly reactive where they overlie a slick crust.
A skier-triggered deep persistent slab in the Birkenhead on Friday suggests that this deeply buried weak layer is still in play. Avoid steep, unsupported, wind-loaded terrain where trigging this basal instability is most likely.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
On Wednesday, a size 2 natural windslab avalanche was reported on E-SE aspects in the alpine.
On Friday, a size 2.5 skier-triggered deep persistent slab occurred in the Birkenhead. This avalanche was remotely triggered, meaning the skier was a distance away from the slab when it occurred (100 m above). It occurred on a wind-loaded slope in the alpine during a period of strong solar radiation. The crown was 150 cm deep.
Looking forward to Sunday, riders should be cautious around pockets of stiff wind slab at upper elevations. These slabs may fail easily where they overlie a slick crust and will be in more atypical locations, as northerly winds have created a reverse-loading pattern. Riders should also be aware of the potential for large and surprising deep persistent slab avalanches. These avalanches are most likely to occur in rocky, shallow, wind-loaded terrain in the alpine or upper treeline.
Please continue to share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.
Snowpack Summary
10-20 cm of recent storm snow sits over wind-affected surfaces at higher elevations and a crust below 1800 m. On steep solar slopes, a sun crust can be found on the surface.
In the midpack, a weak layer can be found 50-100 cm deep, as a decomposing crust, or in many places, it's more of a soft and weak section of the snowpack. There is a widespread weak layer of facets and depth hoar at the bottom of the snowpack.
Generally, the snowpack in this region is weak and shallow. Snowpack depths around treeline are highly variable and range between 150 - 230 cm.
Weather Summary
Saturday night
Clear Alpine temperatures reach a low of -18 °C. Ridge wind light to 40 km/h from the north. Freezing level at valley bottom.
Sunday
Sunny. Alpine temperatures reach a high of -8 °C. Mostly light ridge wind occasionally gusting to 35 km/h from the north. Freezing level at valley bottom.
Monday
A mix of sun and cloud. Alpine temperatures reach a high of -6 °C. Mostly light ridge wind occasionally gusting to 30 km/h from the west. Freezing level at valley bottom.
Tuesday
Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries. Alpine temperatures reach a high of -9 °C. Ridge wind light to 25 km/h from the west. Freezing level at valley bottom.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Watch for wind-loaded pockets especially around ridgecrest and in extreme terrain.
- Wind slabs may be poorly bonded to the underlying crust.
- Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.
- Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present and have produced recent large avalanches.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Northerly outflow winds may have created stiff wind slabs at upper elevations. Watch for wind-loaded pockets, especially just below ridgetops and in extreme and very steep terrain. Wind slabs may be reactive to human triggering where they overlie a slick crust.
Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Deep Persistent Slabs
A layer of large and weak facets sits near the base of the snowpack. This layer is most likely to be problematic in steep, unsupported, wind-loaded terrain or by first triggering a layer further up in the snowpack.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 3