Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Feb 26th, 2025 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Persistent Slabs, Wind Slabs and Loose Wet.
Avalanche Canada,
Avalanche Canada
Warming will seriously test the snowpack in the coming days and will likely produce destructive slab avalanches. It might feel like spring, but the snowpack is far from settled.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches were reported Tuesday.
On Monday, avalanche activity reached size 2.5, with natural avalanches occurring during heavy snowfall and strong winds. Avalanches were triggered within the storm snow and on buried weak layers.
Check out this MIN report of a remotely triggered avalanche near Cranbrook. Photo below
While natural activity is expected to taper off, human triggering remains a concern.
Snowpack Summary
By Thursday, a new melt-freeze crust should glaze the surface on solar aspects and below about 1800 m. The depth of affected snow should increase over the coming days, although crust recovery may be weak. This process will affect 30 to 60 cm of settling recent snow, which is wind-affected at higher elevations. About half of it overlies a crust formed early in the storm. It otherwise overlies faceted snow.
A persistent weak layer of preserved surface hoar or facets from late January is buried 80 to 130 cm deep. This weak layer is expected to remain reactive as forecast warming tests the snowpack. The lower snowpack is generally well-settled.
Check out this MIN for an overview of conditions around Tunnel Creek.
Weather Summary
Wednesday Night
Increasingly clear. 30 to 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind, increasing. Freezing level to 1200 m.
Thursday
Sunny with possible valley cloud. 40 to 50 km/h southwest ridgetop wind, up to 90 km/h in high alpine. Freezing level rising to 2200 m, remaining elevated overnight. Treeline temperature around 2 °C.
Friday
Sunny. 20 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level rising to 2500 m. Treeline temperature 5 °C.
Saturday
Sunny. 10 to 20 km/h west ridgetop wind. Freezing level to 3000 m. Treeline temperature 6 °C.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind-affected terrain.
- Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to buried weak layers.
- Even brief periods of direct sun could produce natural avalanches.
- Avoid exposure to overhead hazards when solar radiation is strong.
Problems
Persistent Slabs
Forecast warming will test 30 cm and 50 cm-deep layers below the recent storm snow as well as the January crust 80 - 130 cm deep. Smaller avalanches may also step down.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Wind Slabs
Strong southwest winds have been redistributing loose surface snow into wind slabs in the lee of exposed terrain features. Wind slab releases could step down to a buried weak layer to create a much larger avalanche.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Loose Wet
Solar warming will work to destabilize snow on sun-exposed slopes sheltered from wind. Wet snow may shed naturally or with a human trigger.
Aspects: South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Feb 27th, 2025 4:00PM
