Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Jasper, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.
Winds are expected to pick up the next few days which will likely create new wind slabs in lee features. Avalanche and riding conditions will depend largely on what the wind does. Our neighbors to the south have been seeing avalanches on the October crust, so its a good time to stay vigilant.
Confidence
Moderate
Weather Summary
Wednesday
6 cm of snow. Alpine temperature: High -12 °C. Ridge wind from the west: 10-30 km/h.
Thursday
4cm of new snow. Mainly cloudy with scattered flurries. Alpine temperature: Low -13 °C, High -10 °C. Ridge winds from the southwest: 10-30 km/h.
Friday
Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries. Trace precipitation. Alpine temperature: Low -14 °C, High -11 °C. 15-35 km/h ridgetop winds out of the southwest
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Be careful as you transition into wind-affected terrain.
- Fresh snow rests on a problematic persistent slab, don't let good riding lure you into complacency.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Be mindful of newly formed windslabs if the wind picks up. Older windslabs are also still present and could be sitting on a crust or facets, which may increase their potential for triggering.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Persistent Slabs
The Oct 18 crust is found just above the ground with weak facets above and below it. There’s uncertainty around its distribution and triggerability. More activity has been observed to the south of JNP, but limited observations make it hard to predict when and where it may be a problem.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5