Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 5th, 2023–Feb 6th, 2023

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

4: High

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high

Treeline

4: High

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high

Below Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Alpine

4: High

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high

Treeline

4: High

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high

Below Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Jasper, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.

Incoming storm expected to produce up to 30cm new snow beginning late Monday through Tuesday. Forecast winds and significant precipitation will overload our weak snowpack. Highway 93 closure planned for 1700hrs on Monday Athabasca Falls to Saskatchewan Crossing. Check 511 for updates.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Feb 4th Icefield patrol was good visibility. Nothing new was observed.

Don't forget to post avalanche observations to the MIN.

Snowpack Summary

Moderate to strong southwest wind continues to strip snow in exposed alpine features creating wind slab in the alpine and into exposed tree line. A weak melt freeze crust facet combo down 25cm below 2100m is showing sudden collapse results in snow pit tests. Generally, the bottom of the snowpack is weak facets and depth hoar. The snowpack ranges from 50 to 120cm.

Weather Summary

Monday will be cloudy with flurries - snowfall will increase in intensity Monday night through Tuesday with up to 30mm possible by the end of Tuesday in the Icefields area. Winds will be moderate to strong from the southwest - freezing level will remain at valley bottom. Clearing trend on Wednesday.

Detailed weather forecasts from Avalanche Canada: https://avalanche.ca/weather/forecast

Terrain and Travel Advice

In areas where deep persistent slabs may exist, avoid shallow or variable depth snowpacks and unsupported terrain features.
Watch for signs of slab formation throughout the day.

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

The bottom of the snow pack is inherently weak with well developed Facets and Depth Hoar. Avalanches initiating in the upper snowpack are likely to step down to this layer and gain significant mass.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Wind Slabs

Moderate to strong winds continue to build wind slabs with the recent snow. Watch for wind slab development on top of the Jan 27th melt freeze crust.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2