Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Jasper, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.
Watch for increasing winds on Friday afternoon. There is a lot of fresh snow to move around. This could overload the slopes that haven't already avalanched on the persistent weak layer.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
Avalanches triggered from strong solar radiation have been occurring. One with large propagation near Observation Sub Peak - just south of the Jasper forecast region.
Snowpack Summary
Variable winds could be creating wind slabs on all aspect in the alpine. A layer of faceted snow above a 1-3cm thick crust that is down 35-60 cm. This persistent weak layer is consistently reactive in snowpit tests and is not going away anytime soon. The mid-pack is faceted with basal depth hoar and well developed facets near ground. HS ranges from 80 to 150cm.
Weather Summary
Mountain Weather Forecast is available @ Avalanche Canada https://avalanche.ca/weather/forecast
Friday
A mix of sun and cloud.
Precipitation: Nil.
Alpine temperature: High -5 °C.
Ridge wind south: 25 km/h.
Saturday
Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries.
Accumulation: 5 cm.
Alpine temperature: Low -12 °C, High -3 °C.
Ridge wind south: 15 km/h gusting to 50 km/h.
Freezing level: 1800 metres.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.
- If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Winds are forecast to increase on Friday afternoon. In the past couple of days the wind direction has been coming from all different directions so reverse loading is possible.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Persistent Slabs
This problem layer is the crust and facets created by early February's warm spell. It is down 30-80 cm in the snowpack and is a 1-10 cm thick crust or multiple crusts with a layer of weak facets above.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3
Deep Persistent Slabs
The base of the snowpack is inherently weak and untrustworthy. Tickling this deep layer would result in a high consequence avalanche. Any avalanche in the upper snowpack has the potential to step down to the base of the snowpack.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 4