Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Jasper, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.
The incoming storm could bring 30cm and moderate to strong winds by Sunday evening-Monday morning but weather models are not in agreement. It would be wise to pull the reins in until one can determine the impacts of the new snow load. There will be an increase in natural activity.
Confidence
Low
Avalanche Summary
The field team observed several size 2 wind slabs in the Miette lake area mainly on East aspects in the alpine. Several other 12-24hr old similar avalanches were noted in the same area. Feb 23 three avalanches occurred in the Churchill group originating in steep, rocky, unsupported terrain ranging in size from 1.5 to 2.5. Expect increased avalanche activity next couple of days as the storm brings new snow and winds.
Snowpack Summary
15-20cm of snow arrived in the past 24 hours at the Parkers ridge area. Much less at Coleman and Maligne. There is a storm brewing with another 20cm to arrive now until Monday. A 1-3cm thick crust is down 20-40 cm on polar aspects up to 2500m and extends as high as 2800m on solar aspects. The mid-pack is faceted with basal depth hoar and well developed facets near ground. HS ranges from 60 to 100cm. The Parkers manual weather station at 2000m might crest 1 meter with this storm input.
Weather Summary
The Mountain Weather Forecast is available at Avalanche Canada https://avalanche.ca/weather/forecast
Saturday night could have 25-65km/h winds and 5cm of snow. Sunday will bring upwards of 14cm of snow, -6 °C, and light gusting strong SW winds. The storm will leave by Monday morning and the temperature will plummet to -26 °C.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
- Fresh snow rests on a problematic persistent slab, don't let good riding lure you into complacency.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
The storm will bring wind and snow further adding to this problem. Some slopes may reach the tipping point.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5
Persistent Slabs
This weak layer is buried 20-40cm deep and is getting deeper with the incoming storm input. Human triggering potential will increase.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5
Deep Persistent Slabs
The base of the snowpack is inherently weak and untrustworthy. Tickling this deep layer would result in a high consequence avalanche.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 3