Avalog
Register
Get forecast notifications
Create an account to receive email notifications when forecasts are published.
Register
Login
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 14th, 2025–Mar 15th, 2025
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Bull, Flathead, Lizard, Lizard-Flathead.

Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.

Check out the forecaster blog for a detailed conditions update.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Thurs: A widespread natural cycle was observed in the Lizard Range with storm slabs up to size 2.5. Explosive control also produced numerous small storm slabs.

Wed: Explosive control produced dry loose and storm slab avalanches to size 2 on north through east facing slopes.

Tues: A natural cycle of small (size 1 to 1.5) storm slab avalanches occurred.

Looking forward: Storm slabs are expected to remain reactive, and may step down to deeper persitstent weak layers.

Snowpack Summary

30 to 40 cm of recent snow combined with southwest winds has formed widespread storm slabs. An additional 2 to 10 cm is expected to fall throughout Saturday. Below 1700 m and on sun-exposed slopes, the storm snow covers a melt-freeze crust. The snow surface may be moist or crusty at lower elevations.

A persistent weak layer of surface hoar or facets from late January is buried 90 to 150 cm. This layer triggered large avalanches earlier in March, and remains reactive in snowpack tests. The greatest concern for this weak layer lies in areas where a thick, supportive crust is absent under the new snow - such as on upper-elevation shady slopes. The lower snowpack is generally well-settled and strong.

Weather Summary

Friday Night

Mostly clear. 15 to 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -9 °C.

Saturday

Cloudy, with 2 to 10 cm of snow. 15 to 30km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C.

Sunday

Cloudy, with 5 to 15 cm of snow. 20 to 35 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -4 °C. Freezing level rising to 1600 m.

Monday

Cloudy with 0 to 5 cm of snow. 20 to 30 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -6 °C. Freezing level rising to 1500 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Keep your guard up as storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to buried weak layers.
  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind-affected terrain.
  • Use conservative route selection and resist venturing into complex terrain.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Up to 40 cm of recent storm snow combined with southwest winds has formed widespread and reactive storm slabs. This new snow will need a few days to settle and bond.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

A persistent weak layer is buried 80 to 130 cm. This layer remains a concern on shaded upper-elevation northerly through easterly slopes.

Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3