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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 14th, 2023–Feb 15th, 2023
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Jasper, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.

Do not trust the snowpack. Your favourite stash has been refreshed with the new snow but the possibility of YOU👈! (Yes, little ol'You!) triggering a large avalanche remains possible. Stick to low-angle, low-consequence terrain.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No new field observations, or road patrol Tuesday.

Avalanche control with explosives last week resulted in numerous large avalanches both wind slab and deep persistent slab running to the bottom of the avalanche paths.

Don't forget to post avalanche observations to the MIN.

Snowpack Summary

Previous HST settled into 10-15cm soft slab; stiffing to wind slab in exposed areas at treeline and above. Generally the mid and bottom of the snowpack are weak facets with depth hoar at the base. The height of snow is variable from 50 to 150cm.

Weather Summary

Expecting very little change overnight. Cooling trend for the next few days, mostly seasonal temps between -10 and -15. Freezing level will remain at valley bottom in the Icefields area.

Detailed weather forecasts from Avalanche Canada: https://avalanche.ca/weather/forecast

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Expect slab conditions to change drastically as you move into wind exposed terrain.
  • Keep in mind that human triggering potential persists as natural avalanching tapers off.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Previous southwest winds have created wind slabs in the alpine and exposed tree line. These slabs will be difficult to visualize with the new 10cm of low-density snow on top.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Deep Persistent Slabs

The bottom of the snow pack is inherently weak with well developed Facets and Depth Hoar. Numerous large natural and explosive triggered avalanches in the past week have run on this layer.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3

Loose Dry

Expect sluffing of the new snow especially in steep solar terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 1.5