Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 14th, 2023 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs, Deep Persistent Slabs and Loose Dry.

DK, Avalanche Canada

Jasper, Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.

Do not trust the snowpack. Your favourite stash has been refreshed with the new snow but the possibility of YOU👈! (Yes, little ol'You!) triggering a large avalanche remains possible. Stick to low-angle, low-consequence terrain.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No new field observations, or road patrol Tuesday.

Avalanche control with explosives last week resulted in numerous large avalanches both wind slab and deep persistent slab running to the bottom of the avalanche paths.

Don't forget to post avalanche observations to the MIN.

Snowpack Summary

Previous HST settled into 10-15cm soft slab; stiffing to wind slab in exposed areas at treeline and above. Generally the mid and bottom of the snowpack are weak facets with depth hoar at the base. The height of snow is variable from 50 to 150cm.

Weather Summary

Expecting very little change overnight. Cooling trend for the next few days, mostly seasonal temps between -10 and -15. Freezing level will remain at valley bottom in the Icefields area.

Detailed weather forecasts from Avalanche Canada: https://www.avalanche.ca/weather/forecast

Terrain and Travel Advice

Expect slab conditions to change drastically as you move into wind exposed terrain.
Keep in mind that human triggering potential persists as natural avalanching tapers off.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Previous southwest winds have created wind slabs in the alpine and exposed tree line. These slabs will be difficult to visualize with the new 10cm of low-density snow on top.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2.5

Deep Persistent Slabs

The bottom of the snow pack is inherently weak with well developed Facets and Depth Hoar. Numerous large natural and explosive triggered avalanches in the past week have run on this layer.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1.5 - 3

Loose Dry

Expect sluffing of the new snow especially in steep solar terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 1.5

Valid until: Feb 15th, 2023 4:00PM