Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Blue River, Cariboos, Clearwater, Clemina, McBride, North Monashee, Premier, Quesnel, Renshaw, Robson, Sugarbowl.
20-30 cm of recent snow and moderate south wind formed storm slabs that may remain reactive to human triggers.
Make conservative terrain choices and use small low consequence slopes to test the bond of the new snow.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
A naturally triggered size 1.5 storm slab on a northeast aspect at treeline was reported near Blue River on Monday.
Snowpack Summary
20-30 cm of recent snow and moderate south wind formed storm slabs that may remain reactive to human triggers.
Below the new snow are a variety of surfaces. These include surface hoar (3-10 mm) on shady slopes at all elevations, wind affected surfaces at treeline and above, and sun crust on sunny aspects.
The mid-snowpack is generally strong but the lower snowpack is a different story.
The November facets are still prominent at the base of the snowpack. They are showing signs of improving but this layer remains a significant concern in rocky, shallow, or thin to thick snowpack areas at treeline and above.
Weather Summary
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy / 30 km/h south ridgetop wind / Low temperature at treeline around -11 C / Freezing level valley bottom
Wednesday
Mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries; 0-5 cm / 20 km/h west ridgetop wind / High temperature at treeline around -9 C / Freezing level 1100 m
Thursday
Mostly sunny / 10 km/h west ridgetop wind / High temperature at treeline around -7 C / Freezing level 1400 m
Friday
Sunny / 10 km/h south ridgetop wind / High temperature at treeline around -4 C / Freezing level 1600 m
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
- Use small low consequence slopes to test the bond of the new snow.
- Avoid exposure to slopes that have cornices overhead.
- A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
- Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
20-30 cm of recent snow and moderate south wind formed storm slabs that may remain reactive to human triggers.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5
Deep Persistent Slabs
A weak layer of facets exists near the base of the snowpack. The likelihood of human triggering is low given the layer's depth, but large triggers such as cornice failures or smaller avalanches in motion have the potential to produce very large avalanches with surprisingly wide propagation. Suspect terrain for human triggering includes steep, shallow, and rocky terrain where the snowpack transitions from thin to thick.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 2.5 - 4
Loose Wet
Expect natural wet loose avalanches on steep sunny aspects when the sun comes out.
Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1.5