Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Jasper, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.
Start and end your day early. A few centimeters of new snow Monday will improve ski quality.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
Size 2 and 3 avalanches have been observed consistently all week. It is becoming difficult to determine what is new and old. Some avalanches are being triggered by cornice failures, sun, or loose wet slides that trigger deeper layers. Expect this pattern to continue.
Snowpack Summary
There is 10-30 cm of soft or moist snow overlying a crust on all but due north aspects. 5mm Surface hoar sits on top of this crust in many areas. A 50-100 cm settled mid-pack rests on top of weak facets. The lower snowpack consists of depth hoar and breaking down crusts. Tree line snow depth is 110-170 cm.
Weather Summary
Sunday night is expected to be 0 °C, 2000m freezing level, and a weak temperature inversion. Monday's weather is scattered flurries, 5 cm of snow, 1 °C, gusting 45 km/h ridge winds, and 2300m freezing level. Tuesday could bring clouds, flurries, and -5 to -2 °C. Wednesday will be similar.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.
- Even brief periods of direct sun could produce natural avalanches.
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slabs
Small avalanches have the potential to step down to this deeper problem layer, made up of buried weaker facets below an crust formed earlier in the season.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3
Loose Wet
This will form on solar aspects, starting around rocks and trees that may contribute to warming the snow around them.
Aspects: South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Cornices
Solar warming may result in cornice failure, acting as a large trigger on the slope below. Avoid overhead exposure containing overhanging cornices.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 3