Avalanche Forecast

Issued: May 4th, 2023 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Cornices and Loose Wet.

mconlan, Avalanche Canada

South Coast, Vancouver Island, North Shore, Sasquatch, Tetrahedron, Powell River, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

Heavy rain will continue to increase the likelihood of cornice failures and wet loose avalanches. Be well aware of any overhead exposure.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Expect wet loose avalanches and cornice failures during periods of rain. Avoiding steep slopes when the snow feels sloppy and avoiding cornice exposure are good travel habits. Avalanches could be very large and travel far, meaning you should limit exposure to overhead avalanche terrain.

Snowpack Summary

The snow surface is moist to mountain top and is unlikely to freeze overnight. The remainder of the snowpack is strong and well-bonded.

Cornices are large and looming at this time of year.

Weather Summary

Stormy conditions arrive Thursday night into Friday, with a declining freezing level from 3000 m to 2000 m over the day. 20 to 40 mm of rain is forecast, which may switch to snow at the mountain tops.

Saturday and Sunday have a freezing level near 1500 m with 5 to 10 cm of snow expected above the rain-snow line.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, avalanches may run surprisingly far.
Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy rain.
Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
Avoid terrain traps such as gullies and cliffs where the consequence of any avalanche could be serious.
The more the snowpack warms-up and weakens, the more conservative you`ll want to be with your terrain selection.

Problems

Cornices

Cornices are large at this time of year and will become more prone to fail as they warm up with spring weather. Stay well back from them when on ridgelines and limit your exposure when travelling on slopes below them, as their release is unpredictable. A flat spot on a ridgeline could actually be an overhanging cornice.

Aspects: North, North East, East, West, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

2 - 3

Loose Wet

Wet loose avalanche activity is likely during heavy rain. Limit your exposure to steep terrain when the snow feels sloppy.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1.5 - 2.5

Valid until: May 5th, 2023 4:00PM