Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Jasper, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.
The snowpack remains susceptible to human-triggered slides. Looking ahead, convectional precip, wind, and warm temps will exacerbate the avalanche hazard.
Given the fragile state of our current snowpack, even minimal additional loading is triggering large destructive slides.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
The field team reports new reactive windslabs in the alpine. Size 3 reported on a large lee feature in the Mt Wilson region. (See photo)
Of note, are reports of large whumphs while traveling on skis is a good indication that the snowpack is still primed for triggering.
Snowpack Summary
In the Alpine: Wind slabs continue to build in lee features throughout the Alpine areas. These slabs will overload the weak persistent slab and continue to produce large avalanches in the region.
Treeline and below: the 70-90 cm from earlier in March has settled into a supportive midpack. This bridges a complicated and reactive deep persistent weakness. Where the snowpack is shallow, the bridging is not strong and triggering a large avalanche is very possible.
Weather Summary
Overnight: Clear with Cloudy periods. No precip. High: -3, Mostly light SW winds, gusting to 35km/h.
Tuesday: Mix of sun and clouds, isolated flurries. Trace of precip. High 0 °C. Winds SW: 15 km/h gusting to 45 km/h. Freezing level: 2300m
Wednesday: Mix of sun and clouds, wet flurries. Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries. Alpine temp: Low -2 °C, High 4 °C. Mostly light S-ly winds: 10-30 km/h. Freezing level: 2700m
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.
- Fresh snow rests on a problematic persistent slab, don't let good riding lure you into complacency.
- Remote triggering is a concern; avoid terrain where triggering overhead slopes is possible.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Most active from steep rocky terrain, may overload and trigger the slopes below.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Wind Slabs
If triggered, expect to initiate lower weaker persistent layers creating a large avalanche.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5
Persistent Slabs
This avalanche problem is associated with a weak facet and crust layer buried at the end of January approximately 70cm down in sheltered areas. This includes a crust layer formed in early March below the recent storm snow which is prominent on solar aspects.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 2 - 3.5