Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Jasper, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.
The warming event is ongoing and won't significantly cool until Tuesday. Be patient for one more day as natural and human triggering remain likely.
Confidence
High
Avalanche Summary
Numerous loose wet avalanches occurred on many steep sunny aspects. Large slabs have been observed across Jasper running on the Feb Crust and some stepping down to ground. Saturday's explosive control work released a few size two slabs and wet loose avalanches.
Snowpack Summary
The recent dramatic warming has moistened surface snow to mountain tops on all aspects and elevations except the high north. This moist snow will have a poor overnight recovery above 2100m Sunday night and sits on the Feb 3rd crust interface down 35-60cm. This persistent weak layer has been consistently producing large natural avalanches. The equally worrisome basal depth hoar makes up the bottom third of the snowpack. HS ranges from 80 to 130cm.
Weather Summary
Mountain Weather Forecast is available @ Avalanche Canada https://avalanche.ca/weather/forecast
Monday
A mix of sun & cloud. Alpine temps: High 2 °C, Freezing level 2300-2700 metres. Ridge wind west: 10-20 km/h.
Tuesday
Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries. Alpine temps: Low -7 °C, High -4 °C, Freezing level: 1600 metres. Light ridge wind.
Wednesday
Periods of snow, 15 cm. Ridge wind east ,10 km/h.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slabs
This problem layer is the crust and facets created by early February's warm spell. It is down 30-90 cm in the snowpack and is a 1-10 cm thick crust or multiple crusts with a layer of weak facets above.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 3
Deep Persistent Slabs
The base of the snowpack is inherently weak and untrustworthy. Tickling this deep layer would result in a high consequence avalanche. Any avalanche in the upper snowpack has the potential to step down to the base of the snowpack.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3.5
Loose Wet
Less solar influence is expected Monday but temperatures remain elevated. Warm temperatures and poor overnight recovery will accelerate the snowpack melting process and may initiate deeper instabilities.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2