Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Jasper, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.
Temperatures have moderated and we have a bit of new snow to freshen up the skiing. Be on the lookout for a building wind slab problem as the winds pick up over the weekend. Any dry loose or wind slab avalanches on the surface have the potential to trigger the deep persistent problem.
Travelers and recreationalists should be aware of the potential for intermittent Road Closures on the Icefields Parkway (93N) on Dec 25 or 26th. Check AB511 for live updates.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches have been observed or reported in the last couple days, but very few people have been out in the cold weather. Please consider submitting a MIN report if you are heading out for some holiday fun!
Snowpack Summary
5-10cm of new snow is forming fresh wind slabs. These new wind slabs sit over a heavily faceted midpack created during our recent deep freeze. The bottom of the snowpack is weak consisting of basal facets with pockets of depth hoar. The snowpack height ranges from 50-110cm. Snowpack is unsupportive tree line and below.
Weather Summary
Saturday
Periods of snow.
Accumulation: 14 cm.
Alpine temperature: High -7 °C.
Ridge wind southwest: 20-30 km/h.
Freezing level at valley bottom.
Sunday
Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries.
Precipitation: Trace.
Alpine temperature: Low -9 °C, High -6 °C.
Ridge wind southwest: 15 km/h gusting to 50 km/h.
Freezing level at valley bottom.
Monday
Periods of snow.
Accumulation: 13 cm.
Alpine temperature: Low -10 °C, High -2 °C.
Ridge wind southwest: 20 km/h gusting to 75 km/h.
Freezing level: 1900 metres.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices at this time.
Avalanche Problems
Deep Persistent Slabs
This weekends storm will be the first significant loading on our deep persistent problem.
This problem includes our prominent facet surface hoar layer down 30-40cm. The lower snow pack is weak and faceted due to consistent cold temperatures. Any avalanches initiating in the mid or upper snowpack will likely step down to the "deep" layer on or near the ground.
This problem may extend below tree line hazard in isolated, steep, open, slopes.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5
Wind Slabs
New snow and moderate winds will create fresh winds slabs on Saturday. Watch out for wind loaded features as this problem builds throughout the day.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, West, North West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Loose Dry
Watch out for "facetlanches" on steep rocky terrain as the cold weather rots the snowpack. The weak nature of our snowpack makes it possible for these avalanches to gouge deeper in the snowpack and gain mass.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1.5