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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 31st, 2024–Feb 1st, 2024
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Until cold temperatures lock in this warm and wet snowpack, dangerous avalanche conditions and poor riding quality will exist.

Human triggered avalanches are possible.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Over the past three days, a widespread avalanche cycle occurred and numerous (size 2-4) wet slab, persistent slab, and wet loose avalanches were seen from all aspects and elevations. Yesterday, a skier remotely triggered (from 50 m away) a size 4 persistent slab avalanche.

Until colder temperatures arrive and stabilize the snowpack, rider-triggered avalanches remain likely. Avoid overhead exposure, very large avalanches have the potential to run to valley bottom.

Snowpack Summary

In the high alpine isolated pockets of wind-transported dry snow exists. A thin, breakable crust exists above 2300 m with moist snow under the crust. Wet, saturated snow 2200 m and below.

The stress of the new load (warm, wet upper snowpack) has been actively producing avalanches failing down to the early and mid January crust/facet layer (30-80 cm down) and the early December rain crust/ facet layer (100+ cm down) which remains a concern above 2000 m in shallow snowpack areas.

The lower snowpack is characterized by weak basal facets in many areas.

Weather Summary

Wednesday Night

Cloudy, a trace of new snow, treeline temperatures near -1°C, south alpine wind 20 gusting to 45 km/h, freezing level around 1700 m.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy with isolated flurries up to 3-7 cm, southwest alpine wind 20 to 40 km/h, freezing level around 1600 m.

Friday

Cloudy with light snow, treeline temperatures near -2°C, southerly alpine wind 10 to 20 km/h, freezing levels near 1600 m.

Saturday

Mix of sun and cloud, a trace of new snow, treeline temperatures near -4°C, southwest alpine wind 10 to 25 km/h, freezing level valley bottom.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be aware of the potential for large, destructive avalanches due to the presence of deeply buried weak layers.
  • Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, avalanches may run surprisingly far.
  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.

Avalanche Problems

Wet Slabs

Wet slab avalanches have been failing on or stepping down to buried weak layers in the mid and lower snowpack resulting in very large avalanches running to valley bottom.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3.5

Deep Persistent Slabs

Basal facets remain a concern in steep, rocky alpine features with thin-to-thick snowpack transitions. Avalanches triggered on this layer have been large and destructive.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3