Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Flathead, Lizard, Lizard-Flathead.
Continue to choose simple, mellow terrain, and give the snowpack more time to adjust to the new load.
Be especially cautious on high north-facing slopes, and on sunny slopes during warming.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
Wed: Explosives avalanche control produced several small to large (up to size 2) storm slab avalanches in north through east facing alpine terrain. Additionally, our field team reported numerous small dry loose avalanches out of steep slopes facing the sun.
Looking forward: Avalanches on buried weak layers may be difficult to trigger, but if one is triggered, it is likely to be large and destructive.
Snowpack Summary
Up to 25 cm of recent snow is settling on a widespread melt-freeze crust that exists on all sun-affected slopes, and as high as 1700 m on shaded slopes.
A weak layer of preserved surface hoar or facets from late January is buried 80 to 130 cm. This weak layer was active during the warmup and remains a concern where there is no thick, supportive crust under the new snow.
The lower snowpack is generally well-settled and strong.
Weather Summary
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear. 5 to 10 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level falling to valley bottom. Treeline low around -6 °C.
Thursday
Sunny in the morning, partly cloudy in the afternoon. 10 - 20 km/h northeast ridgetop wind. Freezing level rising to 1700 m. Treeline high around -3 °C.
Friday
Sunny. 7 to 15 km/h west ridgetop wind. Freezing level falling to valley bottom overnight, rising to 1700 m through the day.
Saturday
Sunny. 25 to 35 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level falling to near valley bottom overnight, rising to 1700 m through the day.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Use small, low consequence slopes to test the bond of the new snow.
- Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
- A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling, and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slabs
A persistent weak layer is buried 80 to 130 cm has produced numerous recent avalanches. This layer remains a concern where there is no thick, supportive crust under the new snow.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, West, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3
Storm Slabs
15 to 25 cm of snow that fell Tuesday night into Wednesday morning may still avalanche under the weight of a human.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Loose Wet
With spring sun and freezing levels rising to 1700 m, wet loose avalanches will be most likely where there is significant loose snow over the crust, starting to get moist or wet for the first time.
Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2