Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Jasper, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.
In many areas of Jasper, the snowpack has doubled since March 8th with 80cm of new snow. This is significant volume. If a slope did not release naturally already, one should be very suspicious for human triggering. Our neighbors to the South have had recent avalanche fatalities.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
Sunday's Maligne Bald hill patrol noted one size 2 slab in the alpine SE aspect which may have been 2 days old. Saturday's Icefield patrol noted one size 2.5 across the valley from Mt Wilson and a couple of recent slides on Mt Lecturn. Friday's avalanche cycle produced many alpine avalanches up to size 3 running to treeline. These avalanches had wide propagation and connected through multiple terrain features.
Snowpack Summary
20-30cm cm arrived on Thursday which adds to our total of 70-80cm since March 9th. Below the fresh snow, the snowpack is complex having multiple crusts and facet layers. The bottom of the snowpack is facets and depth hoar.
Weather Summary
Monday will be sun, flurries, -8 °C, and light SW winds. Tuesday and Wednesday will be similar conditions but slightly colder at -17 to -10 °C.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Pay attention to isolated wind affected features in the alpine, as well as cross-loaded features at treeline.
- Fresh snow rests on a problematic persistent slab, don't let good riding lure you into complacency.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
This problem is generally found in specific pockets in the alpine and exposed treeline slopes. Be vigilant for signs of instability such as whumphing or cracking.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Persistent Slabs
This avalanche problem is associated with a weak facet and crust layer buried at the end of January approximately 70cm down in sheltered areas. This includes a crust layer formed in early March below the recent storm snow which is prominent on solar aspects.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3
Deep Persistent Slabs
Well developed facets and depth hoar at the bottom of the snow pack can produce large avalanches. Several big avalanches released during and immediately after the March 7th storm. Be suspicious of any slopes that have not released naturally.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 3.5