Avalanche Forecast
Regions: East Kakwa, Kakwa, McGregor, North Rockies, Pine Pass, Sugarbowl, Tumbler.
⚠️ Avoid all avalanche terrain ⚠️A widespread natural avalanche cycle will occur over the next few days.
Check out our latest blog about the forecasted warming.
Confidence
High
Avalanche Summary
On Thursday, several natural wind slab avalanches were observed on solar aspects up to size 2.5. These were likely triggered by daytime warming.
We expect to see a widespread natural avalanche cycle over the next few days. Avoid avalanche terrain and exposure from overhead hazards (open slopes, cornices) as avalanches could run full path.
Snowpack Summary
40 cm of recent storm snow is settling quickly with warm temperatures. At treeline and above, the storm snow has been redistributed by previous winds, leaving widespread wind-affected surfaces in exposed terrain. Moist snow surfaces will extend into the alpine with rising freezing levels.
A thick and hard widespread crust that formed in early February is buried about 50 to 110 cm deep. This crust has a layer of facets above it in many areas.
The eastern portion of this region is much shallower with a highly variable and wind-affected snowpack.
Weather Summary
Friday Night
Mostly clear skies. 20 to 30 km/h west ridgetop wind. Alpine temperatures are around +2°C. Freezing level between 2500 and 2800 m.
Saturday
Sunny. 10 to 25 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Alpine temperature high near +6°C. Freezing level continues rising to 3200 m.
Sunday
Sunny. 30 to 50 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Alpine temperature high near +5°C. Freezing level around 2800 m.
Monday
Sunny. 20 to 30 km/h west ridgetop wind. Alpine temperatures high of +2°C. Freezing level around 2500 m.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Avoid runout zones of avalanche paths on solar aspects, avalanches could run full-path if triggered.
- Choose gentle slopes without steep terrain above.
- Use extra caution around cornices: they are large, fragile, and can trigger slabs on slopes below.
- A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slabs
A weak layer of facets rests above a hard-melt freeze crust that formed early February. We expect to see a widespread avalanche cycle on this layer with intense warming through the weekend.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3
Loose Wet
Warming and periods of sun will produce widespread wet loose avalanches, especially on steep sun-exposed slopes. These may step-down and trigger deeper slab avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Very Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5
Cornices
Cornices will weaken with prolonged warm temperatures at higher elevations. Cornice failure could trigger avalanches that have the potential to step down to deeper weak layers creating very large avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3