Avalanche Forecast
Regions: East Kakwa, Kakwa, McGregor, North Rockies, Pine Pass, Sugarbowl, Tumbler.
Continue to choose mellow terrain, and avoid being under steep, sunny slopes.
Triggering large avalanches is still likely until a strong surface crust forms.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
On Saturday, a widespread natural avalanche cycle up to size 2.5 continued, with some loose wet avalanches even being reported on north aspects.
On Friday, several natural persistent slab avalanches were observed, primarily on solar aspects, up to size 2.5.
As temperatures start to drop, we expect natural avalanche activity to be less common, but human triggered avalanches will still be likely until a hard surface crust starts to form.
Snowpack Summary
Moist or wet snow surfaces extend into the alpine on all aspects. The exception may be high, shaded, north-facing terrain.
Expect any dry snow that remains on the surface or underneath a melted surface to be generally wind-affected or compacted.
A thick and hard widespread crust that formed in early February is buried about 50 to 110 cm deep. This crust has a layer of facets above it in many areas.
The eastern portion of this region has a much shallower, highly variable and wind-affected snowpack.
Weather Summary
Sunday Night
Clear. Moderate to strong west wind. Treeline low around -1 °C. Freezing level dropping to between 750 and 1750 m.
Monday
Sunny. 20 to 30 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature around 1 °C. Freezing level between 1500 and 2000 m.
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy. Light to moderate southeast ridgetop wind. Freezing level dropping to 1200 m.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy. Light snow expected. 2-5 cm. As much as 10 in Kakwa. Moderate to strong northeast wind. Freezing level dropping to valley bottom. Treeline low around -10 °C.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- In times of uncertainty conservative terrain choices are our best defense.
- Avoid runout zones of avalanche paths on solar aspects, avalanches could run full-path if triggered.
- Use extra caution around cornices: they are large, fragile, and can trigger slabs on slopes below.
- A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
- When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slabs
A weak layer of facets rests above a hard-melt freeze crust that formed early February. Human triggering of this layer remains likely until a hard surface crust starts to form.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 2 - 3.5
Loose Wet
Warm temperatures and sun will produce widespread wet loose avalanches, especially on steep slopes facing the sun. These may step-down and trigger deeper slab avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5
Cornices
Cornices remain fragile. Cornice failure could trigger very large destructive avalanches. Avoid exposure to slopes that have cornices overhead.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3