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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 2nd, 2025–Jan 3rd, 2025
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Flathead, Lizard, Lizard-Flathead.

As winds pick up, expect fresh and sensitive wind slabs to form near ridge crests. Watch for areas where deep pillows of snow accumulate.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday and Wednesday, explosive avalanche control and testing near Fernie, produced numerous small ( size 1 to 1.5 ) slab avalanches, These failed on the storm interface that was down approximately 20 cm. Additional control results included large cornice triggers that produced large (size 2) storm slab avalanches that in one case stepped down 100 cm in depth.

If you head out in the backcountry, let us know what you are seeing by submitting a MIN report!

Snowpack Summary

Snowfall of up to 10 cm from the past 24 hours is dry and unconsolidated and when the wind begins to increase will easily be transported and begin to form windslab. Below this, past storm snow accumulations vary across the region from 30 to 50 cm and are settling. Below 1500 m elevation a previously moist surface is now dense and refrozen. A melt freeze crust can be found throughout the region and is down variable depths from 5 to 20 cm.

The mid and lower snowpack is generally well-settled and stable.

Snow depths at treeline range from 140 to 220 cm.

Weather Summary

Thursday Night

Cloudy, with isolated flurries. 1 to 5 km/h southeast ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -8 °C.

Friday

Cloudy with light snowfall 5 to 10 cm. 5 to 15 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -10 °C.

Saturday

Cloudy, with periods of clearing. 20 to 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -12 °C.

Sunday

Cloudy, with snowfall 15 to 25 cm. 20 to 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Look for signs of instability: whumphing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, and recent avalanches.
  • Be careful with sluffing in steep terrain, especially above cliffs and terrain traps.
  • Be aware of the potential for loose avalanches in steep terrain where snow hasn't formed a slab.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

As winds increase, expect new and sensitive wind slabs to begin to form in lee aspect terrain and cross-loaded areas.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Loose Dry

Unconsolidated snow that has been protected from the wind is likely to sluff in steep terrain features. Ensure your route plan strives to avoid terrain traps especially cliffs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2