Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Jasper, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.
We are at the higher end of Considerable Avalanche Danger. It is uncertain how the persistent weak layer will react to the warm temperatures, possibility of strong solar radiation and strong to extreme winds but I wouldn't want to be under or on any terrain of consequence to find out.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
Avalanches triggered from strong solar radiation have been occurring. One with large propagation near Observation Sub Peak - just south of the Jasper forecast region.
Snowpack Summary
Winds have increased in speed from the southwest and is blowing snow around in the alpine and into the tree line likely creating wind slabs. A layer of faceted snow above a 1-3cm thick crust that is down 35-60 cm. This persistent weak layer is consistently reactive in snowpit tests and is not going away anytime soon. The mid-pack is faceted with basal depth hoar and well developed facets near ground. HS ranges from 80 to 150cm.
Weather Summary
Mountain Weather Forecast is available @ Avalanche Canada https://avalanche.ca/weather/forecast
Saturday
Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries.
Snow: 5 cm.
Alpine temperature: High -2 °C.
Ridge wind SW: 20 km/h gusting to 70 km/h.
Freezing level: 1900m
Sunday
Cloudy with scattered flurries.
Snow: 5 cm.
Alpine temperature: Low -9 °C, High -6 °C.
Ridge wind SW: 20 km/h gusting to 60 km/h.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.
- If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Winds are blowing strong to extreme from the southwest likely creating wind slabs in the alpine and treeline.
Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5
Persistent Slabs
This problem layer is the crust and facets created by early February's warm spell. It is down 30-80 cm in the snowpack and is a 1-10 cm thick crust or multiple crusts with a layer of weak facets above.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3
Deep Persistent Slabs
The base of the snowpack is inherently weak and untrustworthy. Tickling this deep layer would result in a high consequence avalanche. Any avalanche in the upper snowpack has the potential to step down to the base of the snowpack.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 4