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Avalanche Forecast

Dec 16th, 2023–Dec 17th, 2023
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Mild temperatures could increase the reactivity of buried weak layers to human triggers. Stick to simple terrain and minimise overhead hazard.

Confidence

Low

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported in the region.The buried surface hoar layers show continued reactivity in snowpack testing.

If you're heading out in the backcountry, please consider sharing any observations on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Warm temperatures and sun may moisten the surface snow and break down crusts likely formed overnight. A widespread crust is buried around 10-20 cm deep, under wind affected snow.

At treeline and above, two layers of concern exist, buried around 30 and 50 cm deep. Both layers consist of a crust that tapers at higher elevations covered by a layer of fragile surface hoar in sheltered areas. No recent avalanche activity has been reported on these layers but they continue to be reactive in snowpack tests. These layers may become reactive to human triggers during the warming.

The snowpack remains shallow for the time of year. Snowpack depths at treeline range from 80 to 120 cm.

Weather Summary

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy with possible flurries. Light and variable winds. Freezing levels remain around 1000 m.

Sunday

Partly cloudy with no snowfall. Southwest winds, 20-40 km/h. Freezing levels reach 1000 m with treeline temperatures around -2 °C. An above freezing layer is expected in in the afternoon, from 2000-3000 m.

Monday

Partly cloud with no snowfall. Southwest winds 20-40 km/h. Freezing levels remain at 1000 m with treeline temperatures around -2 °C. The above freezing layer remains, from 1500-2500 m.

Tuesday

Cloudy with light snow. Southwest winds, 20-40 km/h. Freezing levels remain around 1000 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Look for signs of instability: whumphing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, and recent avalanches.
  • Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Thin wind slabs may continue to be reactive, especially where they sit over a crust or surface hoar.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, West, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1.5

Persistent Slabs

Large surface hoar is buried 30-50 cm deep. Triggering this layer is most likely above 1900 m, and warm temperatures may increase reactivity. Investigate open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.

Aspects: North, North East, East, West, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5