Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Jasper, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.
Happy New Year!!
May your resolution (to find the good skiing in sheltered areas) include caution around lingering wind slabs, and the possibility of triggering full depth avalanches. We will unfortunately be bringing our weak snowpack with us into the new year.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
The local ski hill reported triggering of the deep persistent slab during control work. No other recent avalanche activity observed since December 27 when a size 1 and size 2 were observed in steep, rocky terrain.
Snowpack Summary
Up to 10cm of new snow has fallen with generally very light winds.
The snowpack is mostly made up of facets and ranges in depth from 60 to 120 cm at treeline and above. At the bottom of the snowpack there are multiple early season crusts with facets above and below.
Weather Summary
Accumulations of 5-10 cm by Wednesday are expected. Flurries and cloudy skies will give way slightly, and temperatures will plummet to around -20 to -25, by Thursday this week. All week, expect light westerly ridgetop winds.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
- Be careful as you transition into wind-affected terrain.
- Wind slabs are isolated, but may remain reactive.
Avalanche Problems
Deep Persistent Slabs
A variety of crusts with facets above and below exist at the bottom of the snowpack. These layers are going to be with us for a long time and pose a low probability, high consequence situation if triggered.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5
Wind Slabs
Avoid wind loaded unsupported terrain.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1.5