Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Bull, Elkford East, Elkford West, Flathead, Lizard-Flathead, South Rockies.
New snow falling earlier this week combined with wind will continue to promote wind slab formation.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
On Wednesday there was a report of a size 2 natural windslab avalanche on a west aspect at 1800m east of Elkford. It is outlined in this MIN report here.
Please continue to share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.
Snowpack Summary
There is 10-20cm of new snow from early this week, which is being redistributed into lee terrain in wind exposed areas at upper elevations. This overlies previous wind slabs, or a melt-freeze crust below 1900 m.
Deeply buried weak layers formed early season are slowly gaining strength but are still a concern, especially in steep rocky terrain features where the snowpack is thin.
Weather Summary
Thursday Night
Clear periods. Moderate southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature around -6 °C.
Friday
Mainly cloudy with scattered flurries, accumulation 3-5cm. Moderate to strong southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature around -4 ºC. Freezing level rising to 1300m.
Saturday
Mainly cloudy with sunny breaks. Light to moderate southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature around -5 ºC. Freezing level rising to 1200m.
Sunday
Mostly cloudy. moderate west and southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature around -3 °C. Freezing level around 1500m.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
- Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
- Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
10 to 20 cm of recent snow coupled with southwest wind will continue to build wind slabs in lee terrain features.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Deep Persistent Slabs
A layer of faceted grains near the base of the snowpack remains on the radar for areas of this region where the snowpack is shallow and where a hard melt-freeze crust formed around Christmas doesn't exist. Deep persistent slab avalanches have not been reported in the region for some time, however, the weak snowpack structure in these shallow areas may still be triggered with a heavy load.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely
Expected Size: 2.5 - 3.5