Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Jasper, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.
Incoming storm expected to produce up to 30cm new snow beginning late Monday through Tuesday. Forecast winds and significant precipitation will be the first major test to our weak snowpack. Highway 93N closure planned for 1700hrs on Monday Parker Summer to Saskatchewan Crossing. Check 511 for updates.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
Feb 5th Icefield patrol reported one large natural avalanche triggered by glacial ice. No more avalanches observed, however the visibility was very poor.
Don't forget to post avalanche observations to the MIN.
Snowpack Summary
Moderate to strong southwest wind continues to strip snow in exposed alpine features creating wind slab in the alpine and into exposed tree line. A weak melt freeze crust facet combo down 25cm below 2100m is showing sudden collapse results in snow pit tests. Generally, the bottom of the snowpack is weak facets and depth hoar. The snowpack ranges from 50 to 120cm.
Weather Summary
Snowfall will increase in intensity Monday night through Tuesday with up to 30cm possible by the end of Tuesday in the Icefields area. Winds will be moderate to strong from the southwest - freezing level will remain at valley bottom. Clearing trend on Wednesday.
Detailed weather forecasts from Avalanche Canada: https://avalanche.ca/weather/forecast
Terrain and Travel Advice
- In areas where deep persistent slabs may exist, avoid shallow or variable depth snowpacks and unsupported terrain features.
- Watch for signs of slab formation throughout the day.
Avalanche Problems
Deep Persistent Slabs
The bottom of the snow pack is inherently weak with well developed Facets and Depth Hoar. Avalanches initiating in the upper snowpack are likely to step down to this layer and gain significant mass.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3
Wind Slabs
Strong to extreme winds are building wind slabs with the recent snow. Watch for wind slab development on top of the Jan 27th melt freeze crust.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Very Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5
Storm Slabs
Monday to Tuesday may bring 20-30 of new snow. This may be enough to tip the scales and activate a natural avalanche cycle with storm snow by Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. A lot of uncertainty around the predicted amounts.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5