Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Jasper, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.
A Pacific front could bring 20cm of snow to the Icefields on Monday. The weather models are not agreeing thus low confidence on the amounts. The rapid loading will test the deep persistent slab problem . Check 511 for possible highway closures if the storm exceeds expectations.
Confidence
Low
Avalanche Summary
Sunday's Icefield patrol noted nothing new and visibility was excellent. March 8th avalanche control resulted in few wind slabs and numerous loose dry avalanches up to size 2. Natural activity was not noted in the following days.
Don't forget to post avalanche observations to the MIN.
Snowpack Summary
New snow expected on Monday will add potentially 20cm to the snowpack. It will bury a weak sun crust on sun-exposed slopes at lower elevations and surface facets on polar aspects treeline and above. The mid-pack is 20 to 40cm of low density facetted snow. The lower snowpack is generally weak with large facets and depth hoar at the base. Snowpack depth varies from 60 to 160cm.
Weather Summary
Monday will bring a Pacific front to the Icefields, moderate winds, warm temperatures, and potentially 20cm of snow in a short timeframe. It rain below 1700m. Tuesday will be sunny periods, flurries, and -13C. Wednesday will be similar.
Detailed weather forecasts from Avalanche Canada: https://avalanche.ca/weather/forecast
Terrain and Travel Advice
- If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
- Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Rapid snow loading with potentially 20cm or more of storm snow could arrive Monday. Expect this problem to develop during the day and persist through Tuesday. Warm storm temperatures could translate to rain at lower elevations.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Wind Slabs
Previous moderate to strong SW winds have formed wind slabs in exposed areas at tree line and in the alpine. Monday's rapid snow fall will add to this particularly at ridgetops.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Deep Persistent Slabs
The bottom of the snow pack is inherently weak with well developed Facets and Depth Hoar. Monday's forecasted snowfall will test this problem with rapid loading. Use caution is thin snowpack areas where human traffic may be able to trigger this layer.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3.5