Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Jasper, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.
Start and end your day early. Solar radiation and daytime warming can rapidly increase the avalanche hazard.
The deep persistent layers are still in the snowpack. Be careful on high north aspects where there are no crusts above these layers.
Confidence
High
Avalanche Summary
Recently large cornice failures and small wind slabs have been observed at alpine elevations.
On Sunday a size 3.5 deep persistent avalanche was observed on the subpeak to the east of Mt. Saskatchewan.
Snowpack Summary
5-20 cm of recent new snow exists in sheltered areas at the icefields. Wind slabs exist in lee features. The upper snowpack at tree line and below is a series of melt-freeze crusts and moist snow. The mid-pack and lower snowpack is dry, faceted and weak. High north aspects do not have any of crusts in the upper snowpack which may make it easier to trigger the deep persistent layer.
Average treeline snow depth is around 100-150cm at the icefields area.
Weather Summary
Tuesday Night
Cloudy with clear periods and isolated flurries.
Precipitation: Trace.
Alpine temperature: Low -10 °C.
Ridge wind northwest: 15-30 km/h.
Freezing level at valley bottom.
Wednesday
A mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries.
Precipitation: Trace.
Alpine temperature: High -5 °C.
Ridge wind north: 15 km/h gusting to 40 km/h.
Freezing level: 1600 metres.
ThursdayA mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries.
Precipitation: Trace.
Alpine temperature: Low -10 °C, High -3 °C.
Mostly light ridge wind occasionally gusting to 35 km/h.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
- A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling, and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Recent winds from the south-west have created wind slabs in lee features.
Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Persistent Slabs
The middle and bottom of the snowpack is comprised of weak facets. The likelihood of triggering this layer has been decreasing but if triggered, would likely result in a large destructive avalanche.
Aspects: North, North East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 4
Loose Wet
Expect loose wet avalanches with increased solar radiation and warming.
Aspects: South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2