Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Bull, Flathead, Lizard, Lizard-Flathead.
Stick to simple or non-avalanche terrain while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
Avoid overhead hazard especially during periods of sun.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
Over the last three days, explosive control in the Lizard Range has produced numerous storm slabs up to size 2 (large). Last Thursday, a widespread natural cycle was observed in the Lizard Range with storm slabs up to size 2.5, and explosive control also produced numerous small storm slabs.
Snowpack Summary
Up to 60 cm of recent snow has built widespread storm slabs in the region, with another 5 to 15 expected overnight Sunday. Due to southwesterly winds, slabs are expected to be especially reactive on lee north through east facing slopes near ridgetops. In most areas, the storm snow rests on a melt-freeze crust, except for high elevation north and east facing slopes.
A persistent weak layer of surface hoar or facets from late January is buried 100 to 150 cm. This layer triggered large avalanches earlier in March. The greatest concern for this weak layer is on upper-elevation northerly and easterly slopes. The lower snowpack is generally well-settled and strong.
Weather Summary
Sunday Night
Cloudy, with 5 to 15 cm of snow. 30 to 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -8 °C.
Monday
Mostly cloudy, with a few sunny breaks. 15 to 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -3 °C. Freezing level rising to 1500 m.
Tuesday
A mix of sun and cloud. 15 to 30 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -4 °C. Freezing level rising to 1400 m.
Wednesday
Sunny. 25 to 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -2 °C. Freezing level rising to 1700 m.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
- Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
- Even brief periods of direct sun could produce natural avalanches.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Up to 60 cm of recent snow has formed widespread storm slabs that need a few days to bond. The new snow will be especially reactive on wind-loaded slopes and on sunny slopes during periods of solar radiation.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5
Persistent Slabs
A persistent weak layer of surface hoar or facets is buried 80 to 150 cm. This layer remains a concern on upper-elevation northerly through easterly slopes.
Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 3