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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 15th, 2025–Mar 16th, 2025
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Bull, Flathead, Lizard, Lizard-Flathead.

Update 7:10 am: New snow & wind are building reactive slabs.

Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy snowfall and strong wind.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Fri: Explosive control produced a few storm slabs to size 2 on northeast facing slopes.

Thurs: A widespread natural cycle was observed in the Lizard Range with storm slabs up to size 2.5. Explosive control also produced numerous small storm slabs.

Wed: Explosive control produced dry loose and storm slab avalanches to size 2 on north through east facing slopes.

Looking forward: Natural and human-triggered avalanches will be likely on Sunday.

Snowpack Summary

30 to 40 cm of recent snow previously formed widespread storm slabs. An additional 20 to 30 cm is forecast to fall overnight and through Sunday, with wet snow or rain at lower elevations. Moderate to strong southwesterly winds are expected to build especially reactive slabs on lee north through east facing slopes near ridgetops.

A persistent weak layer of surface hoar or facets from late January is buried 90 to 150 cm. This layer triggered large avalanches earlier in March, and remains reactive in snowpack tests. The greatest concern for this weak layer is on upper-elevation northerly and easterly slopes. The lower snowpack is generally well-settled and strong.

Weather Summary

Saturday Night

Cloudy, with 5 to 15 cm of snow. 30 to 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -8 °C.

Sunday

Cloudy, with 5 to 15 cm of snow, possible rain below 1300 m. 30 to 50 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -1 °C. Freezing level rising to 1600 m.

Monday

Partly cloudy, with up to 3 cm of snow. 20 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -3 °C. Freezing level rising to 1500 m.

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy, with up to 3 cm of snow. 15 to 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C. Freezing level rising to 1500 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • As the storm slab problem worsens, the easy solution is to choose more conservative terrain.
  • Use conservative route selection. Choose simple, low angle terrain with no overhead hazard.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

New snow and wind will be forming fresh reactive storm slabs. Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase throughout the day as snow accumulates.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

A persistent weak layer of surface hoar or facets is buried 80 to 150 cm. This layer remains a concern on upper-elevation northerly through easterly slopes.

Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3