Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Feb 27th, 2025 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Persistent Slabs, Wind Slabs and Loose Wet.
Avalanche Canada,
Avalanche Canada
The snowpack shakedown has begun. Set your exposure to avalanche terrain and overhead hazard to the minimum during the warmup. It might feel like spring, but the snowpack is far from settled.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
Two size 2 wind slabs were targeted with explosives on Wednesday in the Castle area. They featured 10 - 30 cm crowns that were noted for containing three distinct wind slab layers from recent loading events.
On Monday, explosives control in the same area produced avalanches to size 2 on east/southeast facing slopes. These involved both storm snow and the buried late-January weak layer, which is expected to remain reactive during the ongoing warmup.
Snowpack Summary
A melt-freeze crust moist or snow now glazes the surface on solar aspects and, by Friday, below about 2100 m. The depth of affected snow should increase over the coming days and crust recovery may be weak. This process will affect around 30 cm of settling recent snow, which has been redistributed by strong southwest winds at treeline and above.
The main feature of the region's overall shallow snowpack is a persistent weak layer of surface hoar or facets from late January now buried 40 to 60 cm deep (see photo below). This layer is expected to be increasingly reactive as warming tests the snowpack.
Check out this MIN for recent conditions in the Elkford area.
Weather Summary
Thursday Night
Becoming cloudy. 15 to 20 km/h west ridgetop wind, easing. Freezing level falling from 2000 m to 1600 m.
Friday
Mostly sunny. 15 to 20 km/h west ridgetop winds, easing. Freezing level to 2400 m. Treeline temperature 5 °C.
Saturday
Sunny. 20 to 25 km/h west ridgetop wind. Freezing level to 3000 m, rising overnight. Treeline temperature 6 °C.
Sunday
Sunny. 5 to 10 km/h west ridgetop wind. Freezing level 3200 m - 2800 m. Treeline temperature 7 °C.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Avoid freshly wind-loaded features, especially near ridge crests, rollovers, and in steep terrain.
- Even brief periods of direct sun could produce natural avalanches.
- Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
- Avoid exposure to overhead hazards when solar radiation is strong.
Problems
Persistent Slabs
A 40 - 60 cm-deep weak layer of large facets produced avalanche activity during the recent storm. Forecast warming will promote natural activity and human triggering potential.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Wind Slabs
Strong southwest winds redistributed much of our loose surface snow into wind slabs in the lee of exposed terrain features on Wednesday. Wind slab releases could step down to a buried weak layer to create a much larger avalanche.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Loose Wet
Solar warming will work to destabilize snow on sun-exposed slopes sheltered from wind. Wet snow may shed naturally or with a human trigger. Loose snow releases may trigger destructive slab avalanches.
Aspects: South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Feb 28th, 2025 4:00PM
