Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Jasper, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.
Do not let the lack of avalanche activity lull you into a false sense of confidence. The recent and ongoing cold temperatures can have the affect of slowly destabilizing existing snowpack weaknesses yet the timing of this is difficult to establish.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
Loose dry avalanches up to size 1.5 in very steep rocky alpine terrain were noted over the past few days. Some are scrubbing to ground. They do not appear to be initiating the existing windslabs or deep basal weaknesses.
Snowpack Summary
Treeline snowpack depth is an average of 45-75cm. Recent NW to NE winds have created windslab conditions on Southerly lee aspects. The top 20cm has two buried Surface Hoar layers predominantly located below 1700m. Near the ground is Depth Hoar and Facets.
Weather Summary
The Mountain Weather Forecast is available at Avalanche Canada https://avalanche.ca/weather/forecast
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Approach lee and cross-loaded slopes with caution.
- Loose avalanches may start small but they can grow and push you into dangerous terrain.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Dry
A handful of loose dry avalanches have occurred recently with one scrubbing to ground. They are currently limited to specific terrain such as very steep alpine rocky terrain yet enough of a concern if a person is standing below it or gets swept away. This currently is our most active problem.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Wind Slabs
Recent NE to NW winds have reverse loaded many alpine slopes such as SW aspects. The condition appears to be idle for now with the cold temperatures and lack of triggers but it is worth keeping on your radar.
Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Deep Persistent Slabs
You must keep this basal layer on your radar as triggering is possible in isolated features, such as steep rocky terrain where you find yourself standing on the surface and not wallowing in facets, that's the problem slab.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5