Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Jasper, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.
The wind has switched direction to the north east. Because of this irregular wind direction watch for possible wind slabs on slopes where they are not typically found.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
In the past couple of days in the Parker Ridge/Mt. Saskatchewan area there have been a couple of natural avalanches to size 2 that are stepping down to ground in the alpine. Similar results with explosive at Marmot Basin have been occurring.
Snowpack Summary
Variable conditions in the alpine from hard wind pressed surfaces to weak faceted snow. A persistent weak layer is down 25-30cm specific to tree line and below in sheltered areas. The snowpack ranges from 40-100cm. Snowpack is unsupportive tree line and below.
Weather Summary
Thursday
A mix of sun and cloud.
Precipitation: Nil.
Alpine temperature: High -7 °C.
Ridge wind northwest: 10-20 km/h.
Freezing level at valley bottom.
Friday
Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries.
Precipitation: Trace.
Alpine temperature: Low -11 °C, High -9 °C.
Ridge wind west: 10-20 km/h.
Freezing level at valley bottom.
Saturday
A mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries.
Precipitation: Trace.
Alpine temperature: Low -29 °C, High -12 °C.
Ridge wind northeast: 10 km/h.
Freezing level at valley bottom.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices at this time.
- Recent wind has varied in direction so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slabs
Marmot Basin Ski area reports surface hoar extending into some alpine features. Solar crust on south aspects is spotty but also of concern. Dig and assess this layer before committing to terrain. This layer has a potential to step down to the weak snow at the ground. Lots of whumpfing and shooting cracks have been observed on this layer across Jasper. Below tree line hazard is rated low but caution is advised in isolated steep open slopes with signs of the upper snow pack becoming a stiffer slab due to wind.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5
Wind Slabs
Northerly winds have arrived. If triggered, wind slabs have a potential to step down to the persistent weak layer resulting in larger avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2