Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Bull, Flathead, Lizard, Lizard-Flathead.
The snowpack is complex and untrustworthy, even in higher elevation, deeper snowpack areas. If you're an advanced user read the Snowpack and Avalanche sections. If you just want some advice, stick to small terrain with minimal consequences so you won't be hurt when you get surprised.
Confidence
Low
Avalanche Summary
On Sunday there was a natural avalanche cycle in the Lizard Range, mostly size 2 but up to size 3. Avalanches were running within the storm snow but the odd sympathetic release suggests facets or surface hoar at the bottom of the recent snow (see Snowpack Section). This type of problem may linger.
Snowpack Summary
Matt and Connie's video paints a better picture of the snowpack than I can with words. Check it out! And here's their MIN report with a graphed profile.
Upper snowpack: consists of the 45 to 60 cm of snow over the past week. At the bottom of this recent snow is a layer of surface hoar.
Lower Snowpack: sugary faceted snow with a rain crust just above the ground.
Snowpack depths at treeline are 45 to 75 cm, and in the alpine 65 to 125 cm.
Weather Summary
Tuesday NightLight southwesterly wind, increasing to moderate as sunrise approaches. Up to 5 cm of snow. Temps around -15 to -20 C.
WednesdayModerate southerly wind, Five to maybe 15 cm of snow, Temps in the minus teens.
ThursdaySouthwest wind diminishing during the day and snow ending near sunrise. Temps steady in the minus teens. Mix of sun and clouds.
FridayDry, Mostly sunny. Continued cold temps. Light westerly winds.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
- Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
It's possible avalanches can scrub down into the faceted lower snowpack. This suggests the possibility of wider and larger events than normally expected.
Thin early season snow depths mean you'll be searching for deeper areas to ride; that'll take you to where avalanches are most likely. Selecting moderate (less steep) slopes will help manage both early season hazards (like knee and A-arm wrecking rocks) and avalanche hazards. Less windy areas will be the sweet spot for both best riding quality and avoiding avalanche issues.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5