Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Jasper, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.
There is currently a special public avalanche warning in effect for the central Rockies. With the current conditions, large avalanches can be triggered even from a large distance away. Stick to low angle terrain well away from steeper slopes and terrain traps.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
There has been a widespread natural avalanche cycle over the last 1-2 weeks that is expected to continue. Most recently, 3x size 2 natural avalanches were reported March 19th and 20th. There have been a number of other natural avalanches further south in the Banff forecast region. Marmot Basin Ski Hill has seen significant results from recent explosive control work, including deep persistent slab avalanches from size 2 to 3.5.
Snowpack Summary
Wind slabs have formed in the alpine. The 70-90 cm from earlier in March has settled into a supportive midpack with slab like properties. Below this new load, the snowpack is complicated and reactive, having multiple crusts and facet layers including the deep persistent basal layer.
Weather Summary
Friday: Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries. Precipitation: Trace. Alpine temperature: High -7 °C. Ridge wind southwest: 20 km/h gusting to 55 km/h.
Saturday: Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries. Precipitation: Trace. Alpine temperature: Low -13 °C, High -8 °C. Ridge wind west: 15 km/h gusting to 40 km/h.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Fresh snow rests on a problematic persistent slab, don't let good riding lure you into complacency.
- Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slabs
This avalanche problem is associated with a weak facet and crust layer buried at the end of January approximately 70cm down in sheltered areas. This includes a crust layer formed in early March below the recent storm snow which is prominent on solar aspects.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3.5
Wind Slabs
If triggered, expect to initiate lower weaker persistent layers creating a large avalanche.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Deep Persistent Slabs
Well developed facets and depth hoar at the bottom of the snow pack can produce large avalanches. Several big avalanches released during and immediately after the March 7th storm. Be suspicious of any slopes that have not released naturally.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 3.5