Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Jasper, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.
Some of the signs of instability are tapering off, but human triggering of persistent and deep persistent slab avalanches remains possible at Treeline and above. Continue to avoid steep convexities, unsupported features, and large open tree line and alpine slopes. Although natural avalanche activity has tapered off, now is not the time to let your guard down.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
No significant avalanche activity have been observed or reported in the last four days. Explosive control work at Marmot Ski area triggered additional avalanches on the deep persistent problem in steep alpine terrain on Sunday.
If you're out in the hills, don't forget to post to the MIN. Every bit of information helps!
Snowpack Summary
Previous moderate to strong southwest winds redistributed any loose surface snow onto the already existing persistent slab particularly in lee features. A layer of Surface Hoar and Facets is down 20-40cm in sheltered areas. Large Facets and Depth Hoar comprise the bottom portion of the snowpack. Snowpack depths vary from 50-100cm depending on location; in the alpine, many exposed features have been stripped to ground.
Click here to learn more about these tricky conditions.
Weather Summary
Tuesday expect variable cloud with the potential for isolated flurries. Daytime high in the valley will be -1C, low of -11C. Wind will be light from the west. Clearing on Wednesday with similar temperatures. The northern edge of a building low pressure system will bring increasing cloud on Thursday with moderate southwest winds and additional isolated flurries.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.
- Keep in mind that human triggering potential persists as natural avalanching tapers off.
Avalanche Problems
Deep Persistent Slabs
The bottom of the snow pack is inherently weak with well developed Facets and Depth Hoar. Avalanches initiating in the upper snowpack are likely to step down to this layer and gain significant mass.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3
Persistent Slabs
A varied slab sits over the December 17th Facet-Surface Hoar layer. This problem is most significant in open tree line features and in the alpine where you can expect a stiffer, likely more reactive slab.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5