Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 16th, 2023 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Deep Persistent Slabs and Wind Slabs.
cgarritty,
Avalanche Canada
The weak basal snowpack continues to demand patience and diligent group management from backcountry travelers. A bit of new snow in the Fernie area hasn't done much to change that picture, but expect new slabs to form here if the wind starts to move it around on Tuesday.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
Wet loose avalanches were reported Friday and Saturday up to 1900 m with warm temperatures.
Please continue to share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.
Snowpack Summary
High freezing levels over the weekend produced moist surface snow up to 2000 m, now a crust and under a trace of recent flurries. Additional light flurries in the forecast won't do much to change this picture over the next few days.
A crust/facet layer is down 50-90 cm (and 2-15 cm thick at TL elevation), below the mid-pack is settled and consolidated.
Another crust/facet layer is down 70-150 cm. Below this crust, the basal snowpack is weak and faceted. Treeline snow depths average 120-250 cm.
Weather Summary
Monday night
Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries. Light west or northwest winds.
Tuesday
Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries, increasing a bit overnight. Light west or southwest winds, increasing slightly. Treeline high temperatures around -4.
WednesdayCloudy with continuing isolated flurries with less than 5 cm of new snow, including overnight amounts. Light to moderate southwest winds, increasing over the day. Treeline high temperatures around -5.
ThursdayCloudy with continuing scattered flurries bringing up to 5 cm of new snow, including overnight amounts. Light southwest winds. Treeline high temperatures around -5.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
- In areas where deep persistent slabs may exist, avoid shallow or variable depth snowpacks and unsupported terrain features.
- Wind slabs are most reactive during their formation.
Problems
Deep Persistent Slabs
Weak, faceted grains make up the basal snowpack. Where supportive to riders, a melt-freeze crust may be providing a bridging effect, making it more difficult to trigger deeper layers. Any avalanche triggered this deep will likely be large and destructive. Be especially suspicious of shallow, rocky, or cross-loaded areas with variable snow depths.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Wind Slabs
15 cm of new snow in the Fernie area will be available for transport by the next winds to hit the region. Expect reactive wind slabs to form if you're seeing blowing snow on Tuesday.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 17th, 2023 4:00PM
