Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Jasper, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.
Winds and new snow forecast for Sunday. While chasing fresh turns, remember to stay vigilant in regards to the deep persistent slab problem as even a small slide has a potential to step down to the deeper instabilities. Be mindful of the overhead hazards you are exposed to as you pick your line.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
No new natural avalanches observed or reported. No patrol on Saturday.
Don't forget to post avalanche observations to the MIN.
Snowpack Summary
Recent strong to extreme southwesterly winds stripping exposed features and building wind slabs in the alpine and at tree line. In sheltered locations 30cm of low density snow lies over a generally weak mid and bottom snowpack with facets and depth hoar at the base. The height of snow is variable from 50 to 150cm.
Weather Summary
Up to 10 cm of snow expected throughout the day on Sunday. This precipitation will be accompanied by moderate to strong southwesterly winds with freezing levels at valley bottom. On Monday, the ridge top winds are switching to moderate to light northwesterly and the temperatures are cooling to - 15 C in the alpine..
Detailed weather forecasts from Avalanche Canada: https://avalanche.ca/weather/forecast
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Expect slab conditions to change drastically as you move into wind exposed terrain.
- Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
With the new snow and persistent moderate to strong southwesterly winds in the forecast, new wind slabs will be forming in the lee slopes. These wind slabs will have a potential to overload the deep persistent layer below and result in larger than expected avalanches.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5
Deep Persistent Slabs
The bottom of the snow pack is inherently weak with well developed Facets and Depth Hoar. Large natural and explosive triggered avalanches in the last week have run on this layer.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3