Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Jasper, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.
Above freezing temperatures are forecasted for higher elevations over the next couple days. Carefully consider the over head hazard of your trip, especially if it is exposed to the sun.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
Two relatively fresh size two slab avalanches were observed on the steep south facing aspects of Nigel Peak late in the afternoon of Jan 25.
Snowpack Summary
Widespread wind effect at alpine and treeline has formed wind slabs over a weak faceted mid pack. At the bottom of the snowpack are the early season crusts, which are faceting and often surrounded by large depth hoar. The snowpack is 70-130 cm in depth at treeline, and thins quickly below treeline.
Weather Summary
Monday
Sunny
Precipitation: Nil.
Alpine temperature: High 2 °C.
Ridge wind west: 10-30 km/h.
Tuesday
A mix of sun and cloud.
Precipitation: Nil.
Alpine temperature: Low -6 °C, High 0 °C.
Ridge wind west: 10-30 km/h.
Wednesday
Sunny with cloudy periods.
Precipitation: Nil.
Alpine temperature: Low -7 °C, High -4 °C.
Ridge wind southwest: 15 km/h.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Limit exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes, especially when the solar radiation is strong.
- Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present in the snowpack.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
There is a large degree of uncertainty about how the snowpack will react to the forecasted above freezing temperatures in the alpine and tree line over the next couple days. Steep, rocky, and south facing slopes are prime suspects for surprising avalanches in these conditions.
Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Deep Persistent Slabs
A variety of crusts with facets above and below exist at the bottom of the snowpack. These layers are going to be with us for a long time and pose a low probability, high consequence situation if triggered.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5