Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Akamina, Bull, Crowsnest North, Crowsnest South, Elkford East, Elkford West, South Rockies.
Avalanche conditions will deteriorate over the next two days as temperatures rise. There is potential for large, destructive natural avalanches on buried weak layers.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
On Saturday, explosive-triggered storm slabs were also reported up to size 2 and shooting cracks showed signs of instability in wind-affected storm snow near Castle.
Numerous large natural slab avalanches were reported in this MIN from Mear Lake on Saturday. Some of them are suspected to have run on buried weak layers.
Looking forward, we can expect to see an uptick of persistent slab avalanche activity on buried weak layers as warm temperatures weaken the snowpack.
Snowpack Summary
20 to 30 cm of recent snow is becoming moist with rising freezing levels.
A melt-freeze crust is found 40 to 50 cm deep, except on high-elevation north and east-facing slopes.
A persistent weak layer of surface hoar or facets from late January is buried 50 to 100 cm deep. It is most likely to be triggered on steep, rocky, convex slopes on northerly and easterly aspects at treeline and above.
Weather Summary
Monday night
Partly cloudy. 20 to 40 km/h southwest ridgetop winds. Treeline temperature 0 °C. Freezing level 2000 m.
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy. 10 to 30 km/h southwest ridgetop winds. Treeline temperature +3 °C. Freezing level rising to 2600 m.
Wednesday
Sunny. 10 to 20 km/h south ridgetop winds. Treeline temperature +7 °C. Freezing level rising to 3200 m.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy. 20 to 30 km/h southwest ridgetop winds. Treeline temperature +5 °C. Freezing level falling to 2000 m.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Avalanche danger is expected to increase throughout the day.
- The likelihood of deep persistent slab avalanches will increase with each day of warm weather.
- The more the snowpack warms up and weakens, the more conservative your terrain selection should be.
- Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to buried weak layers.
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slabs
A persistent weak layer of surface hoar or facets is buried 50 to 100 cm deep. Triggering is most likely on rocky slopes with a convex shape on north and east aspects at treeline and above.
Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 2 - 3
Loose Wet
Loose wet avalanches will become increasingly likely with rising temperatures, especially at elevations where surface snow is seeing above-zero temperatures for the first time.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Wind Slabs
Recent snow and southwest wind have formed wind slabs on lee aspects at treeline and above.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2