Register
Get forecast notifications
Create an account to receive email notifications when forecasts are published.
Login
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 15th, 2024–Mar 16th, 2024
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high

Avoid avalanche terrain.

Unseasonably warm weather will likely result in a widespread natural avalanche cycle.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday, large persistent slab and wind slab avalanches (up to size 2.5) occurred naturally on east slopes at treeline and alpine, respectively. Whumpfs and shooting cracks were also observed at treeline and below. Over the last week, skiers were surprised by large avalanches; several were remotely triggered from a distance from low-angle or flat terrain.

Expect increasing natural avalanche activity with the incoming warm weather.

Snowpack Summary

Expect surface snow to be wet or moist.

A layer of weak, faceted crystals over a crust, or surface hoar, is the primary layer of concern, buried around 40 to 80 cm deep. This layer has been reactive, especially at treeline and below, over the last week.

Weather Summary

Friday Night

Mostly clear. 10 to 20 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperatures around 0 °C. Freezing level 3000 m.

Saturday

Sunny. 15 to 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperatures around +8 °C. Freezing level rising to 3200 m.

Sunday

A mix of sun and clouds. 40 to 50 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperatures around +6 °C. Freezing level 2500 m.

Monday

Partly cloudy. 15 to 20 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperatures around +4 °C. Freezing level 2000 m.

For more details, see the Mountain Weather Forecast.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain as temperatures increase.
  • Persistent slabs have potential to pull back to lower angle terrain.
  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

The likelihood of persistent slab avalanches will increase with each day of warm weather. Uncertainty remains about how the persistent weak layer will react to the rapid warming.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3

Loose Wet

Intense warming will likely trigger numerous loose wet avalanches. These may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger-than-expected avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5