Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 16th, 2023 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Loose Wet, Wind Slabs and Deep Persistent Slabs.

Avalanche Canada DK, Avalanche Canada

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Looks like spring, feels like spring, but still not quite spring. This weekend will be a test for the snowpack with forecasted sun and temperatures. Start early and finish early. Sun is having the strongest effect at 1400. Choose Ice climbs with no overhead, sunny exposure.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Icefields parkway- Numerous natural avalanches, mostly in the alpine on steep rocky features, possible cornice triggered, up to size 3 Snowballing and small loose wet observed in steep solar terrain at all elevations.

Don't forget to post avalanche observations to the MIN.

Snowpack Summary

15-20cm of new snow, with moderate SW winds creating active windslab in the immmedate lees. These slabs sit over a sun crust on at low elevations and steep southerly slopes; old wind slab and surface facets in sheltered terrain. The mid-pack is 20 to 40cm of low density facetted snow. The lower snowpack is generally weak with large facets and depth hoar at the base. Snowpack depth varies from 60 to 170cm.

Weather Summary

It looks like spring and at times, feels like spring! You'll need to consider your aspect carefully this weekend. I'm most concerned about the strong radiation on steep solar slopes and cliffs. Rising freezing levels, possibly as high as 1900m.

Detailed weather forecasts from Avalanche Canada: https://www.avalanche.ca/weather/forecast

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
  • It’s possible for avalanche danger to remain elevated into the early evening hours.

Problems

Loose Wet

An icon showing Loose Wet

Loose snow avalanches will be vary from wet to dry depending on aspect and elevation. If the terrain is steep and protected from wind, a loose snow avalanche is possible. Even these smaller avalanches may trigger the deep persistent slab in isolated spots.

Aspects: South, South West, West.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 1.5

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs

Recent storm snow accompanied by moderate southwest wind has created wind slabs in the alpine and on isolated features at tree line. Wind slabs will become more reactive on sun exposed slopes as temperatures rise. Even a small wind slab may wake up the deep persistent problem.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, West, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Deep Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Deep Persistent Slabs

The bottom of the snow pack is inherently weak with well developed Facets and Depth Hoar. Wind slab avalanched have stepped down to the deep persistent slab since the last storm meaning proving that large triggers can influence this basal weakness. The likelihood is slowly increasing for this high consequence avalanche problem.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1.5 - 3.5

Valid until: Mar 17th, 2023 4:00PM