Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Bull, Elkford East, Elkford West, Flathead, Lizard-Flathead, South Rockies.
New snow falling earlier this week combined with wind will continue to promote wind slab formation.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
On Saturday, east of Fernie, a couple of small to large natural and rider triggered avalanches were reported that involved cornices. See the MIN report for more information.
Natural and rider-triggered (size 1 to 1.5) wind slabs have been recently reported at treeline and alpine elevations. This MIN report from the South Rockies field team is a good example of terrain where wind slabs are more likely to be triggered.
Please continue to share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.
Snowpack Summary
There is 10-20cm of new snow from early this week, which is likely being redistributed into lee terrain in wind exposed areas at upper elevations. This overlies previous wind slabs, or a melt-freeze crust below 1900 m.
Deep weak layers formed early season are slowly gaining strength but are still a concern, especially in steep rocky terrain features where the snowpack is thin.
Weather Summary
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy with clear periods. Light to moderate west and southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature around -8 °C. Freezing level at valley bottom.
Thursday
Mix of sun and cloud. Moderate southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature around -4 °C. Freezing level rising to 1400m.
Friday
Mainly cloudy with scattered flurries, accumulation 3-5cm. Moderate to strong southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature around -3 ºC. Freezing level rising to 1500m.
Saturday
Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries. Light to moderate west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature around -4 ºC.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Approach lee and cross-loaded slopes with caution.
- Be careful with wind slabs, especially in steep, unsupported and/or convex terrain features.
- Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
10 to 20 cm of recent snow coupled with southwest wind will continue to build wind slabs in lee terrain features.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Deep Persistent Slabs
A layer of faceted grains near the base of the snowpack remains on the radar for areas of this region where the snowpack is shallow and where a hard melt-freeze crust formed around Christmas doesn't exist. Deep persistent slab avalanches have not been reported in the region for some time, however, the weak snowpack structure in these shallow areas may still be triggered with a heavy load.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 2.5 - 3.5