Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Birkenhead, Duffey, South Chilcotin, South Coast Inland, Stein, Taseko.
The new storm snow is not bonding well to old surfaces, and human-triggered avalanches are likely.
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Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
On, Wednesday, reports indicated that the recent storm snow was reactive to human triggers initiating storm slabs to size 1. Dry loose sluffing occurred in steep terrain features.
Reactive storm slabs are likely on Friday, especially in at upper elevations that see more wind effect. Natural avalanche activity can spike on solar slopes when the sun is out.
Snowpack Summary
Another 20 cm of snow fell by Thursday. The strong southwest wind continued to redistribute some of the fresh snow onto lee slopes at the ridgeline. This brings up to 80 cm of snow since last weekend. The recent snow sits above a crust on all aspects except high north-facing terrain, where it sits on a facet interface that formed in early March.
A layer of facets and surface hoar from mid-February can be found down around 90 to 120 cm.
Another layer of facets and surface hoar from late January can be found down 120 to 150 cm.
Weather Summary
Thursday Night
Cloudy with some clear periods and flurries up to 5 cm. 10 to 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -9 °C. Freezing level valley bottom.
Friday
Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries. 10 to 20 km/h southeast ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -8 °C. Freezing level valley bottom.
Saturday
Cloudy with 5 to 15 cm of snow. 15 to 50 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C. Freezing level 1200 m.
Sunday
Cloudy with snow 5 to 10 cm. 15 to 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -4 °C. Freezing level 1300 m.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Avoid freshly wind-loaded terrain features.
- Keep your guard up as storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
- Even brief periods of direct sun could produce natural avalanches.
- Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Up to 80 cm of storm snow and strong winds have built reactive storm slabs. Back off if you encounter signs of instability like warming from the sun, whumpfing, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5
Persistent Slabs
Weak layers remain a concern in north-facing terrain where snowpack depth is variable. These layers are still adjusting to the new snow load and may be reactive to human-triggering.
Aspects: North, North East, East, West, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3