Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Jasper, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.
One more day of frigid temperatures before things change over the weekend. Forecasted snow, wind, and warming temperatures will likely lead to rising avalanche hazard. Use caution as we emerge from cryostasis.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches have been observed or reported in the last couple days, but very few people have been out in the cold weather.
Snowpack Summary
Continued cold weather is forming surface facets and generally weakening the snowpack. A persistent weak layer is down 25-35cm specific to tree line and below in sheltered areas. The bottom of the snowpack is weak consisting of basal facets with pockets of depth hoar. The snowpack height ranges from 40-100cm. Snowpack is unsupportive tree line and below.
Weather Summary
Friday
Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries.
Precipitation: Trace.
Alpine temperature: High -13 °C.
Ridge wind southwest: 15 km/h.
Freezing level at valley bottom.
Saturday
Periods of snow.
Accumulation: 14 cm.
Alpine temperature: Low -12 °C, High -6 °C.
Ridge wind southwest: 20 km/h.
Freezing level at valley bottom.
Sunday
Periods of snow.
Accumulation: 13 cm.
Alpine temperature: Low -8 °C, High -2 °C.
Ridge wind southwest: 20 km/h gusting to 50 km/h.
Freezing level: 1800 metres.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices at this time.
Avalanche Problems
Deep Persistent Slabs
This problem includes our prominent facet surface hoar layer down 30-40cm. The lower snow pack is weak and faceted due to consistent cold temperatures. Any avalanches initiating in the mid or upper snowpack will likely step down to the "deep" layer on or near the ground.
Below tree line hazard is rated low but caution is advised in isolated steep open slopes where wind affected stiffer snow may be present on top of the weak layers described above.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5
Loose Dry
Watch out for "facetlanches" on steep rocky terrain as the cold weather rots the snowpack. The weak nature of our snowpack makes it possible for these avalanches to gouge deeper in the snowpack and gain mass.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1.5