Avalanche Forecast
Regions: North Shore, Powell River, Sasquatch, Sky Pilot, South Coast, Stave, Tetrahedron.
Heavy rain and wet snow have impacted the snowpack.
Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
An avalanche cycle is expected to occur on Thursday night / early morning Friday with high freezing levels and heavy precipitations.
Over the past weekend, lots of loose dry sluffing was reported in MINs. Small skier-triggered storm slabs (size 1) were also reported in immediate lees of ridge tops and convexities in the recent 30-50 storm snow.
If you head out in the backcountry, consider sharing your observations with us on the Mountain Information Network!
Snowpack Summary
Up to 40 mm of precipitation has already fallen throughout the day Thursday. This has likely soaked the snowpack at lower elevations and brought wet and heavy snow at upper elevations only. This wet snow is resting on a crusty surface formed last week below 1200 m. Above 1200 m, it is falling on previously dry storm snow from last weekend (30-50 cm), which was bonding well to an underlying melt-freeze crust. The middle and lower snowpacks are strong and well-bonded.
Weather Summary
A warm system is crashing into the South coast Thursday night. Wet, warm & windy conditions are expected to ease on Friday. Another system will bring ongoing heavy precipitations for the weekend.
Thursday night
Heavy rain. Snow at higher elevations only. Local amount 30-50 mm. Strong southerly wind gusting 60 km/h. Alpine low -1 °C. Freezing level steady at 1800 m.
Friday
Isolated flurries ending in the morning. Local amount 5-10 cm. Moderate southwest wind. Alpine high -1 °C. Freezing level lowers to 1200 m.
Saturday
Snow. Local amount up to 20 cm. Strong southerly wind gusting 60 km/h. Alpine low -2 °C. Freezing level around 1000 m.
Sunday
Snow. Local amount up to 20-30 cm. Strong southerly wind gusting 60 km/h. Alpine low -2 °C. Freezing level around 1200 m.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Be alert to conditions that change with aspect and elevation.
- Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
- Avoid areas with overhead hazard.
- The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
- Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Heavy precipitations are expected overnight Thursday until mid-day Friday. With high freezing levels, rain will fall at most elevations (below 1200 m). Rain on snow events could rapidly destabilize the snowpack and create natural loose wet avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1.5
Storm Slabs
At upper elevations, storm slabs will be developing, with the upcoming precipitations expected Thursday night and Friday. Natural avalanches will be increasingly reactive as the storm progresses. Rider-triggerable avalanches will be likely, especially on lees of features and convex terrain.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2