Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Kakwa, McGregor, North Rockies, Pine Pass, Tumbler.
New wind slabs are expected to form on Saturday night and will be reactive to human triggering on Sunday. Seek out wind-sheltered terrain at lower elevations for the best riding and safest conditions.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches were observed on Thursday or Friday.
Earlier in the week there was evidence of deep persistent slab activity that likely occurred during last weekend's storm with avalanches up to size 3.5. While we currently expect the deep weak layer to be dormant, riders should continue to avoid steep, thin, rocky slopes where triggering a deep persistent avalanche would be most likely, particularly near alpine ridgelines.
Looking forward, we anticipate that new wind slabs will form Saturday night which will be sensitive to human triggering on Sunday.
Snowpack Summary
The new snowfall will arrive with strong southwest wind Saturday night, forming new wind slabs in wind-exposed terrain. The snow will overlie older wind slabs that formed between Tuesday and Friday from strong northeast wind. This means that wind slabs may be found on all aspects.
The middle of the snowpack is generally strong.
A weak layer of large and weak facets is found near the base of the snowpack. The layer is currently dormant, except perhaps in very steep alpine terrain that is inherently shallow. Riders should continue to avoid thin, rocky terrain where the likelihood of triggering this layer is increased.
Weather Summary
Saturday Night
Snowfall 5-15 cm, moderate to strong S-SW wind, treeline low around -20 °C.
Sunday
Snow flurries in the morning 1-3 cm, light to moderate SW-W wind, treeline high around -14 °C.
Monday
Mainly cloudy with light flurries, light to moderate SW wind, treeline high around -14 °C.
Tuesday
Mainly cloudy with light flurries, light SE wind, treeline high around -12 °C.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Expect slab conditions to change drastically as you move into wind exposed terrain.
- Recent wind has varied in direction so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.
- Back off if you encounter whumpfing, hollow sounds, or shooting cracks.
- Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
New snowfall amounts are not expected to be too substantial but will be accompanied by strong southwest winds which will form new wind slabs for Sunday. Older wind slabs that formed during the recent northeast outflow winds may still be reactive to human triggering, so wind slabs should now be expected on all aspects in wind-exposed terrain.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2