Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 5th, 2026–Jan 8th, 2026

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper, Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.

Up to 15cm of new snow is expected by Wednesday morning. Winds are also forecast to increase, which will create new wind slabs across the region.

Keep the deep persistent layer in mind, especially in thin or rocky terrain, where it is easiest to trigger.

Sheltered areas will offer the best skiing and riding conditions.

Confidence

Moderate

Uncertainty is due to the fact that deep persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Avalanche Summary

Jan 2- A natural 2.5 deep persistent avalanche was observed at Parkers Ridge, likely triggered by cornice fall.

Jan 4- A natural 2.5 deep persistent avalanche was observed on Mt. Morden Long.

Snowpack Summary

Winds have redistributed snow into windslabs in alpine and open treeline areas. The midpack is supportive and sits above 40-60 cm of faceted snow that makes up the lower snowpack. Basal facets and an early season melt freeze crust are located ~30cm off of the ground and remain active as a weak layer in the snowpack.

Average snow depth in the Icefields Parkway area is 140-200cm and in the Maligne area average depth is 100cm.

Weather Summary

Tuesday

Up to 9cm new snow.

Alpine temperature: High -9 °C.

Ridge wind southwest: 20 km/h gusting to 50 km/h.

Wednesday

Mainly cloudy with scattered flurries.

Accumulation: 4 cm snow.

Alpine temperature: Low -14 °C, High -9 °C.

Ridge wind southwest: 15 km/h gusting to 45 km/h.

Thursday

Cloudy with scattered flurries.

Accumulation: 4 cm.

Alpine temperature: Low -15 °C, High -12 °C.

Ridge wind southwest: 20 km/h gusting to 60 km/h.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind-affected terrain.
Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present and have produced recent large avalanches.
Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.